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India Inc May Go Slow On Expansion As Costs Set To Rise, New Pipeline Is Not Getting Created


By Nishant, Section Real Estate
Posted on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 11:02:24 PM EST

With cost of funds set to hit double digits, corporates are taking a relook at their investment plans. There has been no fresh pipeline of investment demand from corporates for the past three months, say senior bankers.

This is even as bankers are seeing a delay in some of the projects. ICICI Bank joint managing director Chanda Kochhar said, "Over the past three months, we have not seen new projects in the pipeline. New pipeline is not getting created. But the pipeline, which had built up, is big at around $700 billion. If that continues on to implementation stage, it would take care of the GDP growth of 8%. We have not seen any corporate abandoning projects."

Citi India's Sanjay Nayar pointed out, "The intention of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rate hikes on Tuesday is to slow down aggregate demand. I think, we will definitely see a slowdown in consumption in the quarters ahead. In an environment where consumption is slowing down, cost of borrowing is up, and the inflation outlook is unclear, investment demand is certainly going to witness a slowdown, albeit with a lag. Corporates will go slow on their investment plans and we may see some projects being deferred."

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Corporates would have to revise their cost assumptions, given the steep hike in fuel costs and interest rates. Says Bank of India chairman and managing director TS Narayanasami, "Corporates will now have to factor in the energy cost and interest rate burden in the total cost of projects. Smaller and mid-sized companies may adopt to wait-and-watch policy. But those corporates, which have already began expansion, will complete their projects." Adds Bank of Baroda chairman and managing director MD Mallya, "There could be a slowdown in credit demand from corporates, as they factor in cost of funds and the impact of oil prices in project costs. But now, all new projects will see a deceleration. Corporates may pause before they take up new projects."

Bankers feel that corporates are unlikely to raise long-term funding at this point of time. Says Mr Nayar, "With investment and consumption demand receding, we will certainly see inflation expectations reined in, within a few months. Hence, we may not see too many corporates raising long-term funds during this phase, unless otherwise they have really run out of options."

Corporates, which were looking at raising money from overseas markets would find it more tougher. Says BankAm managing director and chief executive officer Vishwavir Ahuja, "The arbitrage opportunities that existed earlier have gone away now. While ECB norms have been loosened, the move comes at a time when the appetite to raise dollar-funding has gone down considerably. Even though, base rates in the US are low, spreads have widened dramatically. Add to that, the weakness of the rupee and the recent rise in forward premia. Global credit markets have been affected and the appetite to fund large-debt transactions has been severely impacted. There is a lot of risk aversion as well as credit availability.

The slowdown is likely to impact specific segments sectors. Allahabad Bank chairman and managing director AC Mahajan feels that there could be a slowdown in the real estate, personal loan, cement and steel segment.

Source:economictimes.indiatimes.com 27/Jun/2008

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